ECONOMICS?

ECONOMICS?
Forget that the word economy is based on the Greek word oikonomos for housekeeping and domestic management. The word is really about the desire for profits and executive wealth in business activities. The talk about ‘the economy’ uses attributes with various econo-babble statements and the claim that the economy needs fixing, restarting, or having money pumped into the ‘economy’. Human needs are secondary. The various definitions do not help in any understanding. Is it about wealth, money, trade, scarcity, or ordinary life? Contrary to the claims of economists it is not a science. Science (scientia=knowledge) is proven (proven = tested) information that is replicated, tested by others, and failed to be disproved by falsification tests. Economic textbooks and reports are full of the word assume which negates science which starts with a null hypothesis. Economic textbooks have an aura of mathematics with a multiplicity of graphs used to illustrate a point. They do not use real data but manufacture data to support an assumption.

An economist’s graph of a demand and supply example (Y axis = price of goods) (X axis= quantity of supply) that shows straight lines not based on any real data and assumes changes in economics (business changes) as parallel displacements. Thinking about the low end of the supply curves intelligent people must believe that the low price depends on the price of the raw materials needed to make the supplied product. That tends to make nonsense of the high end of the supply line.
The fundamental criss-cross of economist’s supply and demand assumed graph can be seen to fail any test for real science.

Economics is more like a religion. There are required beliefs (growth, equilibrium), and prohibited beliefs (limits, dynamic change). There are many religious sects of economics with somewhat different views about aspects which provide endless disputes which are never resolved. They have a well established habit of keeping heretics out of any examination of heterodox ideas.

If economics were a science, then they would be able to use their established theories to make useful predictions. Predictions of economists are a consistent failures. They do not ever come within a couple of standard deviations of their estimates if they ever provide them.
Published work of Professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was shown to be based on spreadsheet errors.

Theories of economists that have been actually applied have been show to be utter failures. Minimising government control, regulation and social support have all proved to be harmful to life. The assumption that privately owned business is better than state run activities has proved to be disastrous quite often. Privatisation is a failure. Globalisation is a failure. The so-called neo-liberal economic agenda has failed. Science must dispense with a theory that fails testing.

If economics and economists are to get any respect and authoritory then they need to do a few things. They need a charter of ethics like other professions. They need standards which can eliminate professional failures. They need to reveal their conflicts of interest and their paymasters especially when they join the punditocracy. They need to publically accept their theory failures and reject them. They need to rigorously apply true scientific methods basing theories only on real, established data and observations and accept ‘don’t know’ situations. They need to take a ‘do no harm’ basis including changing from the Pareto Optimum to a egalitarian aim and changing to indices which measure real human values.

Economics took a wrong term when the Club of Rome published the Limits to Growth book in 1972. Using the development of computer software (called System Dynamics) that could simulate complex interactions of related variables, uncomfortable trends were indicated. The simulations exposed the real limits to growth and compared alternative economic behaviours. The rejection by economists of the modeling exposed their biases and their lies got acceptance by other sectors of the community who were uncomfortable with the indicated trends. The economists missed a great opportunity to make a leap forward into understanding the complex dynamic nature of economic systems by taking up computer modeling of complex systems and even developing their own dynamics software. Economists still have not caught up with the real sciences which have done this.

Christchurch Mosque Killings

With the killing of many Muslims at mosques in Christchurch it is necessary to ask, how has this Islamophobia come about? It can be recognised that this followed the demolition of the three World Trade towers in New York in September 2001. This resulted in the attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan. These were based on lies. No cave hideout bases or weapons of mass destruction were discovered to justify the rhetoric. Before the day was done in the demolitions, an Israeli official was pointing his finger at Osama bin Laden and a group of Muslims. How could he possibly know so soon when US was caught so flat footed? This quickness of explanation is a sure sign of a false flag operation. An observer overlooking Liberty Park saw people cheering, photographing and flicking a lighter in celebration. These people were caught and they turned out to be Mossad agents. When caught they blamed Muslims. After being released and returning to Israel they, in an interview, said they were there to document the event. This makes it more likely to be an Israeli operation than a Muslim one. Osama bin Laden made clear his denial and abhorrence of the demolitions.
The official explanations are clearly defective. The site was not declared a crime scene and an true thorough investigation made. The third tower, WTC7, was not hit by an aircraft and was from the various films, obviously a professional demolition job. This cannot be denied in spite of erroneous official explanations. Several thousand architects and engineers has organised and shown that the demolition of WTC1 and WTC2 were most likely professional demolitions too. With damage by the aircraft to the building sides we should expect an asymmetric collapse in that direction but films show they were symmetrical collapses.
The 25th March 2019 has seen a legal process by the architects and engineers organisation against the FBI failure filed in Court.
The accusations and military actions has resulted in a backlash (also called a blowback) by Muslims. Thus further producing a demonisation of Muslims and Islamophobia.
If the reviewing of all the evidence points to a false flag operation by Israel, there will be a crisis in the deluded US position.

THE USA IN THE LETTER V

Individual Americans met here in NZ are virtuous, but the country as a whole isn’t. They are voracious in the way they vastly consume and pollute beyond their share. They are violent; with any reflection vitiate all around them, they construct a war, war on poverty, cancer, drugs, terrorism, to no effect. They are vain, ventose, and vacuous in their belief that they are ‘special’ while revealing their stupidity and ignorance. Their business model is based on vice and corruption being vital for the rich because for them, money is all. They are vandals because they use bombs and violence before diplomacy. When countries are victorious over US invasions and domination they are vindictive, vengeful, and will pursue a vendetta for ever. In their way of communicating they are vulgar and vitriolic. Their use of torture is vile. They are venal in the way they do not keep promises and treaties. They would rather pay more for private business services than vindicate a public service available to all. We must avoid being a vassal and give them a valediction and go our own way with independent valour.

Thoughts on Capitalism.

Most teachers of economics only concern themselves with capitalism as the economic model of interest. They support with enthusiasm the form generally known as neo-liberal economics. The features include the worship of what they call the free market. It includes the idea that in the name of freedom there should be minimalist government and deregulation. The privatisation of government assets is the most important way of making progress because the belief that free markets always result in more efficiency in business than state run activities.

Economists consider themselves as scientists, but that is false. They do not use data that they ought to establish, but depend on assumptions and assertions. The idea of markets that reach an equilibrium where supply and demand naturally meet, is claimed to give economic stability, yet the experience of booms and bust belie that prediction. This economic hypothesis is falsified convincingly by recent experience. The orthodox economists did not foresee the global financial crisis of 2008.

The ideology that desires minimum government demands tax cuts so the state is forced to reduce social support. The propaganda that the retention of money by capitalists will mean that they will create jobs so that wealth will trickle down to the working non-capitalists. This has not happened, falsifying that hypothesis. The ability of capital to borrow more capital is a positive feedback mechanism that causes inequality to grow in favour of those who have capital. Mathematically, the most efficient distribution of wealth and income is an egalitarian one.

That de-regulation is the harbinger of freedom is a noxious idea. Time and again de-regulation has resulted in deaths and injury to workers and the decrease in financial ethics. This is another falsification for those who think scientifically.

The idea that privatisation will bring efficiency to industrial and social activities is another hypothesis that is falsified. Many times the state must intervene in some way from failures of this hypothesis.

There is a significant faith in the idea that by businesses acting selfishly all will benefit (the trickle down idiocy again). Time and again the selfish actions harm others. The adulteration of food and the production shortcuts have not benefitted the consumer with safety and product reliability. Where public assets are used for profit, then the assets are over-exploited and everyone loses (the Tragedy of the Commons).

Humans are naturally social beings. By working together for a common outcome, advantages for everyone accrue. Competition as seen as good ignoring that it tends to produce more losers than beneficiaries. The goal of competition is to win by taking over the losers to create a monopoly and have a free rain to exploit that position. Co-operation bypasses the need to create losers. True co-operation benefits all.

Many activities of the state have a social purpose. The direction of these activities on a commercial basis has proven many failures. Rather than put business graduates in charge of these operations, we need people whose careers have been in progressing the social intentions to advance into leadership. It is nonsense to put some fancy economist in charge of education for instance.

Economics Reverse Engineered.

Economics theory in textbooks is conducted on the basis of nice graphs. They are usually not given quantity graduation on the axes. Often a table of economic relations is used which are not based on actual measurements but imagined up to show a theoretical point. The supply ‘curve’ is an example. Often a nice straight line that sometimes intersects the origin of the graph and even occasionally indicates a quantity of supply when the price is zero. The graph shows a relation that the price is determined by a fixed amount plus a factor multiplied by the quantity of supply. Reverse engineering this, the total cost of production is based on the price multiplied by the quantity of production so it becomes the sum of the fixed amount multiplied by the quantity of supply and the production factor multiplied by the square of the quantity of supply. That the cost of supply depends on the square of the supply quantity seems nonsensical.

A different graph is presented in the chapters on marginal costing in competitive markets with a curve that is close to a parabola of average costs price against quantity. When I reverse engineer to get the total cost of production the first part of the downward part of the curve gives a cost curve close to reality with the cost being the sum of a fixed cost and a variable cost multiplied by the quantity of production. But then reverse engineering the rest of the upward trending curve gives a sharply rising variable cost. One graph I have just reverse engineered shows the variable cost rising to about eight times the initial variable cost. As the material resource and services cost part of the variable costs should not change, there is an exaggeration of the labour part of the variable costs. Economic textbooks depend on believing that the productivity of labour declines at scale but surely not by a factor over eight.
The cost structure of producers is something that a scientist could obtain but economists depend on assumptions rather than a scientific approach.

I have a thought that economics is more like a religion than a science.

Good God?

The Christian God is usually claimed to be a loving God which is concerned with people, their morals and welfare. Since we do not really know the mind of God, we must consider alternative hypotheses. The God, if one really exists, could be completely indifferent as to the welfare of the residents of our little planet. Or it could be the opposite to the Christian God concerned with the good of people and actually be evil and play games with us and amuse itself with human disasters.

In the earthquake in Lisbon in 1531 it was the devoutly faithful that were killed by the church collapses. If the idea of a God being able to affect events is true then the killing of the faithful would be done by an evil God. Lightning used to kill a lot of church bell-ringers. Earthquakes, floods, landslides, and other natural disasters had caused the premature deaths of many people, good and bad alike.

As an atheist I have survived trying to breath water, being washed away in a river, dodged an avalanche by a few meters, falling into a crevasse, being entombed while the oxygen was being depleted by a primus, while caught in a fatal avalanche and yet avoided an opportunity of a God to punish me. Considering this as evidence, the Good God hypothesis does not get supported and the other hypotheses seem more likely.

Biblical Nonsense.

Peter LaRuffa, who is one of the staff at the Grace Fellowship Church (USA) has said “If, somewhere within the Bible, I were to find a passage that said 2+2=5, I would believe it, accept it as true and then do my best to work it out and understand it.” If we counted 1,2,3,5 or 1,2,4,5 then the proposition would be true, but we count (in English) 1,2,3,4,5 etc. Ancient hunter/gathering people counted one, two, two-one, two-two, two-two-one or one, two, three, one-three, two-three, three-three. But the Pastor is putting his faith in something known to be wrong. That means we can not accept anything that Pastor says. Faith is the denial of observation so that a blind belief can be preserved.

I was sent to Bible classes but I must have seen through it early on because my parents dropped my attendance. So I have not been indoctrinated and lack much knowledge of Biblical content. I note that some clergy who read the Bible thoroughly are turned off and become atheistic. But with my poor knowledge of it, I know the Bible is wrong.

For someone who evaded the propaganda when young, there are many ridiculous things in the bible. A human formed from clay? Or a human (Lot’s wife) transmuting in the other way to another type of atom. Any change in the constituent atoms of the clay would not go to the majority of the elements in a human body. A person formed out of a human rib? A talking snake which doesn’t have vocal chords. No wonder that there are so many humourists and stand up comics that can have so much fun with religion. The Bible is a big resource for something to ridicule.

The earth does not contain enough water to cover the whole earth. That story about Noah is full of holes concerning how big the arc was and how it could be made to hold and feed animals for a long time. Still, there is geological evidence that a flood could have occurred to fill the Mediterranean and the Black Sea which happened so long ago that the truth could get corrupted. The original Bible has passed through many translations and copying before printing was invented that it cannot be trusted to be perfectly accurate. People with a good knowledge of the Bible have analyzed it and found such a considerable number of contradictions that it can only be treated as ancient stories written by people who had very limited knowledge or understanding of what was real. In mathematics a proposition can be proved to be false by the existence of contradictions.

A man swallowed by a fish and not suffocate? That is not possible. A person going away for 40 days without food and water could not survive. A human could not live for 900 years. Maybe it was 900 months as I am over 900 months age myself. Then Jesus Christ (if he really existed) did some magic tricks which have been done by modern magicians. I think the Bible is purely mythological.